Boundary evidence
o4-mini
OpenAI. Model release date: 2026-04-16. Preview data is simulated.
FinCut Boundary
2025-03
2025-03 is the planned FinCut Boundary. This window and earlier windows are treated as high look-ahead-risk under this coverage signature.
Organization
OpenAI
Model Release Date
2026-04-16
Coverage
US + CN; market path, company events, policy
Latest Non-High-Risk Window
2025-07
Tested Windows
4
Conditions
closed_choice + idk_enabled
Tested Windows
This table shows the planned evidence path. It is not a public benchmark result during the testing phase.
| Window | Dataset | Result | Screen | Closed-Choice | IDK-Enabled | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01 | Coming soon | No high-risk signal | Low signal | 7.0% | 4.0% | low |
| 2025-11 | Coming soon | No high-risk signal | Low signal | 7.0% | 4.0% | low |
| 2025-07 | Coming soon | Inconclusive | Uncertain | 16.0% | 8.0% | low |
| 2025-03 | Coming soon | High look-ahead risk | High signal | 34.0% | 21.0% | medium |